Thursday, September 3, 2015

Superior Plus Corp.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: div growth stock, reasonable to expensive. Testing the stock price is really a mixed bag. Dividend yield is lower than what it has been, but companies changing from income trusts to corporations have lower yields. There is a lot of research to suggest that companies with high dividends yields do better over the longer term than other companies. This company has a relatively high dividend at 6.55%. See my spreadsheet at spb.htm.

I do not own this stock of Superior Plus Corp. (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF). I started to follow this stock as it was an income trust company that was talked about in the Money Reporter from MPL Communications. This company changed to a corporation from Unit Trust (TSX-SPF.UN) in 2009.

With earnings losses in 2010 and 2011, the company lowered its dividend by 63% in 2011. It is still paying out monthly dividends. Dividends are down by 18% and 13% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. In 2014 they increased their dividends at the end of the year by 20%. The current dividend is good at 6.55%.

The company has appears to have gone public in 1996 as an income trust. I have dividend info back to this date. The company has been inconsistent with dividend increases. Some years dividends have gone up and sometimes they have gone down. For example, dividends were increased in 1999, but decreased in 2000.

The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is too high currently. The DPR for EPS for 2014 was 149% and this ratio is expected to be around 124% this year and then falling below 100% in 2016.

Outstanding shares have increased over the past 5 and 10 years by 4.8% and 5.2% per year. Shares have increased due to DRIP, Share Issues and Stock Options. This means I would be interested in the per share values. Revenue is up moderately over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has declined over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS growth is non-existent to moderate over the past 5 and 10 years.

Revenue has grown at 12.01% and 9.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 7% and 4.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is down by 11.45 and 12.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 5.7% and down by 1.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. With CFPS, if you look at 5 year running averages, CFPS is up by 0.2% and 1.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The Return on Equity is 10.3% in 2014 and has a 5 year median of 9.8%. The ROE on comprehensive income is 16% in 2014 with a 5 year median of 16%. This suggests that the earnings are better than they might first appear.

The debt ratios are not what I would like. The Liquidity and Debt Ratios are low and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.28 and the Debt Ratio is 1.35. I prefer both of these to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.84 and 2.84.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.18, 8.85 and 12.52. These are lower than the corresponding ratios at 9.99, 12.44 and 15.35. The current P/E Ratio is 18.97 based on a stock price or $11.00 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $7.69. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.19 and 1.65. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.43. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the relative median.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.59 and the current P/B Ratio is 2.43. The current P/B Ratio is based on a Stock Price of $11.00 and BVPS of $4.53. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the relative median. It is best to buy stocks that are below the relative median.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 7.34% and the current dividend at 6.55% is some 10.8% lower. This testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the relative median.

The historical average and the historical median dividend yields are 11.40% and 10.45%, values some 43% and 47% above the current yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Because this stock is no longer an income trust, it is expected that the dividend yield would go lower. So, future dividend yields are unlikely to get near past dividend yields.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $13.90. This implies a total return of 32.91% with 26.36% from capital gains and 6.55% from dividends.

This entry on The Legacy talks about this stock getting Buy ratings. The site of OCTA Finance says this stock is in a weak down trend. An article by Ryan Vanzo in the Motley Fool asks if the dividend is safe and concludes it is.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Superior Plus Corp. is a group of diversified businesses that operate within three primary divisions. Superior's Energy Services division provides distribution, wholesale procurement and related services in relation to propane, heating oil and other refined fuels throughout Canada and the North Eastern United States. Superior's Specialty Chemicals division is a leading supplier of sodium chlorate and related technology to the pulp and paper sector and a regional Midwest supplier of chloralkali and potassium based products. Superior's Construction Products Distribution division is a leading distributor of walls, ceilings and insulation products to the Canadian and United States construction industry. Its web site is here Superior Plus.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Jean Coutu Group Inc. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about possible method for funding a portfolio continue...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Reasonable to expensive. A lot of the testing I have done on this stock suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, I am getting very mixed results. The stock has had a very good run up in price since 2011, rising some 194%. The stock price has tumbled some 26% this year. The momentum of this stock price is currently down. See my spreadsheet at pjc.htm.

I do not own this stock of Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF), but I used to. I bought this stock first in 2000 for my RRSP account. In 2004, I bought some of this stock for my trading account. In 2007, I sold this stock in my RRSP account because I wanted money to invest in Saputo which I liked better at that time. Also, in 2007, I was looking to buy a condo and so was looking to raise some money for a mortgage. This company was not doing that well at the moment, so I sold the stock in my Trading Account.

Note that there are two classes of shares, Class A Subordinate Voting shares and Class B Multiple Voting shares. Class A shares are what are sold on the open market and Class B Shares are for insider Jean Coutu. Jean Coutu's Class B shares are worth around $2.8B. He also has 2% of the outstanding Class A shares worth around $80M.

Over the past year in insider trading there has been around $9.2M of insider buying and around $7.6M of insider selling for net insider buying of $1.7M. There is around 0.04% of the outstanding market cap in net insider buying.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.80, 11.42 and 13.05. The corresponding 10 values are close at 10.21, 11.66 and 13.10. The current P/E Ratio is 17.62 based on a stock price of $20.97 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.19. (Note this company has an end of February financial year end.) This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. A P/E Ratio of 17.62 is generally a moderate P/E Ratio however, the range of the P/E Ratios for this type of stock is rather normal.

I get a Graham Price of $12.31. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.23, 1.46 and 1.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.70 based on a stock price of $20.97. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is still relatively reasonable, but the price is relatively above the median. A P/GP Ratio of 1.71 is a moderate to high ratio. A stock to be a good buy would have to have a P/GP Ratio of 1.00 or less.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.64. The current P/B Ratio is 3.71 based on a BVPS of $5.66 and a stock price of $20.97. The current P/B Ratio is only some 1.9% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. It is only slightly above the relative median. However, a P/B Ratio is 3.71 is a bit high.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.27%. This is relatively high for this stock. The current dividend yield at 1.91% is some 15.9% lower. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but getting close to expensive. This test suggests that the stock price is relatively above the median.

The 10 year dividend yield is 1.89% and the historical median dividend yield is 0.81%. On an historical basis this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, the company is paying out a larger and larger share of the earnings and cash flow in dividends. You would expect to have the dividend yield rise under these circumstances. The dividends in 1994 were 8.7% of the EPS and in 2015 were 34.5% of the EPS, an increase of 297%.

There is a big divergent in my stock price testing. If you look at Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratios, the 10 year median ratio is 12.17 compared to the current P/CF Ratio of 18.39. Even a P/CF Ratio of 12.17 is rather high. The current one is some 51.1% higher and this suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

You do not get a better answer looking at P/S Ratio. The 10 year P/S Ratio is 0.90, a rather low value. The current P/S Ratio is 1.39 a value some 55% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at the analysts' recommendations they are all over the place. There are Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $22.10. This implies a total return of 7.3% with 5.39% from capital gains and 1.91% from dividends.

A recent report from Dakota Financial News talks about recent insider buying. (As with a number of sites, this one shows a message over the site's page. You just have to click on the X in the top right corner for message to disappear.) A recent note by Joseph Solitro for the Motley Fool includes this stock in an article about three over sold stocks. (This means that the stocks are cheap.) In a recent Financial Post article, Jean Coutu Group said its first quarterly profits are down due to a tax hit.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, September 01, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

The Jean Coutu Group is one of the most trusted names in Canadian pharmacy retailing. The Corporation operates a network of 413 franchised stores located in the provinces of Québec, New Brunswick and Ontario under the banners of PJC Jean Coutu, PJC Clinique, PJC Santé and PJC Santé Beauté. Furthermore, the Jean Coutu Group owns Pro Doc Ltd ("Pro Doc"), a Québec-based subsidiary and manufacturer of generic drugs. Controlling shareholder is Jean Coutu. Its web site is here Jean Coutu Group.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Jean Coutu Group Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer Staple. This is a consumer stock so it has some volatility. Dividends are low but growth is good. With the current dividend and growth rate you should be getting a dividend around 6% in 10 years' time. See my spreadsheet at pjc.htm.

I do not own this stock of Jean Coutu Group Inc. (TSX-PJC.A, OTC-JCOUF), but I used to. I bought this stock first in 2000 for my RRSP account. In 2004, I bought some of this stock for my trading account. In 2007, I sold this stock in my RRSP account because I wanted money to invest in Saputo which I liked better at that time. Also, in 2007, I was looking to buy a condo and so was looking to raise some money for a mortgage. This company was not doing that well at the moment, so I sold the stock in my Trading Account.

This company is currently reporting in CDN$. It reported in US$ for a short time between 2005 and 2007 inclusive. All my values will be in CDN$ terms. The company's annual report is dated near the end of February each year.

This is a dividend growth company. The dividends are low to moderate and the dividend increases are moderate. The current dividend yield is 1.91%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.27% and the historical median dividend yield is 0.73%. Dividend yield was quite low, generally below 1% until 2008. Personally, I do not buy stocks with a dividend under 1%. It takes too long to get a decent yield on your original purchase price. I would buy a low yield stock once the dividend popped up over 1%.

The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 13.8% and 12.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Dividends have gone up over the years, but not consistently. There have been years of large dividend increases and other years with no dividend increase at all.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 30.5% and the CFPS is 28.6%. The DPR for the financial year ending in February 2015 was 34.5% for EPS and $29.1% for CFPS. Similar results are expected in the future.

This company has had problems at different times in the past, but it is a consumer stock. The stock has done well over the past 5 years. The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 20.23% and 5.88% per year. The portion of this total return from dividend is at 3.39% and 1.76% per year. The portion of this total return from capital gain is at 16.84% and 4.12% per year.

The outstanding shares have decreased by 4.6% and 3.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This makes growth in revenue, cash flow and earnings more important than growth in Revenue per Share, CFPS and EPS. Revenue growth is non-existent to low. Earnings growth is moderate to good. Cash Flow growth is non-existent to moderate.

Revenue is down by 1.3% and 13.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect low growth in Revenue to continue with growth at less than 1% for the 2016 financial year and then moderate growth.

Earnings (or net income) have grown at 14.2% and 5.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS looks much better with growth at 15.4% and 8.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has been declining over the past 2 years. It is expected to growth around 2.6% for the 2016 financial year. If you look at EPS to the end of February 2015 and the end of the first quarter, it is down by 1.7%.

The Return on Equity has been very good lately with ROE for the 2015 financial year at 21.3% and the 5 year median at 35.4%. ROE on Comprehensive Income is similar. The reason for the high ROE is the decline in Book Value (or Equity). BVPS is down by 2.1% per year over the past 10 years. It has been improving lately. (High ROEs are not necessarily a good thing.)

The debt ratios are very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.95. The Debt Ratio is 4.25 and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.31 and 0.31 for the 2015 financial year.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, September 2, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

The Jean Coutu Group is one of the most trusted names in Canadian pharmacy retailing. The Corporation operates a network of 413 franchised stores located in the provinces of Québec, New Brunswick and Ontario under the banners of PJC Jean Coutu, PJC Clinique, PJC Santé and PJC Santé Beauté. Furthermore, the Jean Coutu Group owns Pro Doc Ltd ("Pro Doc"), a Québec-based subsidiary and manufacturer of generic drugs. Controlling shareholder is Jean Coutu. Its web site is here Jean Coutu Group.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, August 31, 2015

ONEX Corp.

On my other blog I am today writing about dividend income growth using RY and RIO.UN as examples continue...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: High risk, hard to evaluate. The dividend yield is extremely low at just 0.31%. Analysts see total return of only 4% over the next 12 months. This is low for a company that has not made any profit over the past 3 years. They do have a lot of cash on hand and capital gain return has been good with stock price increasing by just over 18% so far this year. See my spreadsheet at ocx.htm.

I do not own this stock of ONEX Corp. (TSX-OCX, OTC-ONEXF), but I used to. I bought this stock in 2001 because it was on a stock hit list article I read. By April 2008, I knew that this was not the sort of stock I wanted to be invested, so I sold. I thought this was a dividend paying stock, but I was mistaken. Sometimes it is a good idea to review the sort of stock that we should not buy if we want to buy dividend growth stocks.

They have not done well lately with 3 years of earnings losses. Another thing that is noticeable is that they have a lot of cash on hand, currently equivalent to almost 40% of the stock's price.

Since 2013 there has been some dividend increases. So dividend growth showing for last 5 and 10 years is at 9.7% and 4.8% per year. One dividend increase was for 18% and another for 35%. There was also an increase of 28.6% in 2015. So, it appears that this stock might become a dividend growth stock. However, the dividend yield is so low that I still would not be interested. The current dividend yield is just 0.3%.

The one area that this stock good at is in total return. The total return in the last 5 and 10 years is at 21.74% and 15.84% per year. The portion of this total return from dividends is at 0.32% and 0.36% per year. The portion of this total return from dividends is at 21.41% and 15.47% per year.

Outstanding shares have decreased over the past 5 and 10 years at 2% and 2.4% per year. Shares have increased due to DRIP and Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. There has been no increase in shares due to Stock Options over the past 2 years.

When shares are decreasing, what you want to look at is things like Revenue, rather than Revenue per Share. Revenue is down by 1.6% and up by 3.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 0.4% and 6.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The company has done best in cash flow with Cash Flow up by 8% and 11.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 10.2% and 14.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The Liquidity Ratio is good, but the Debt Ratio is low and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are high. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.87 and the Debt Ratio is 1.09. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 11.58 and 10.58.

It is interesting that there are some 7 analysts giving a rating on this stock, but none seem to be supplying estimates on Revenue, Earnings or Cash Flow. I was able to some earnings estimates with EPS expected to be around $0.32 US$ or $0.42 CDN$ for 2015. However, the second quarterly report shows EPS down by 256% (a higher loss) than EPS to the end of 2014. The EPS estimate gives this stock a P/E Ratio of 190.64 based on a stock price of $79.75.

Book Value has been dropping like a stone over the past 3 years and the current P/B Ratio is 55.86 based on a stock price of $79.75. The Graham Price I get for 2015 is $3.67 compared to a stock price of $79.75. The P/GP Ratio is 21.75 when a good stock price has the ratio close to 1.00.

Where on this stock the P/E, P/B and P/GP Ratios are extremely high, the P/CF and P/S Ratios are the opposite at extreme lows. The 10 year P/CF Ratios is 2.27 a very low number. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.58 based on a stock price of $79.75 CDN$ and CF of $1,212.00 US$ or $1,584.00 CDN$ for the 12 months ending in the second quarter. The current P/CF is some 58% higher than the 10 year value and this suggests a relatively high stock price. However, a P/CF Ratio value of 3.58 is a low Ratio.

The 10 year P/S Ratio of 0.16 is very low. The current P/S Ratio of 0.34 is some 109% higher. The difference between the 10 year ratio and the current one suggests that the stock price is relatively high. However, a P/S Ratio of 0.34 is a very low P/S Ratio.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold; however, the consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $82.80. This implies a total return of 4.14% with 3.82% from capital gains and 0.31% from dividends. Is such a low return worth the risk of buying this stock?

This Dakota Financial News article talks about some brokerages updating their recommendations for Onex. This article in the Las Vegas Sun talks about Onex buying Tropicana Las Vegas hotel and casino with Penn National Gaming.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Onex is one of North America's oldest investment firm committed to acquiring and building high-quality businesses in partnership with talented management teams. Onex manages investment platforms focused on private equity, real estate and credit securities. Its web site is here ONEX.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Holiday

I am on holiday. Be back on August 31.

Friday, August 21, 2015

BlackBerry Ltd.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap and risky. I would not be currently interested in this tech stocks. Often once a tech stock becomes a has-been, they seldom recover. I wish the company well because I always like it and it is great to see good Canadian tech stocks. See my spreadsheet at bb.htm.

I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX-BB, NASDAQ-BBRY), but I used to. I bought this stock for capital gain. I first bought it in 1999 and then some more in 2000. I sold some in 2006 and 2007 to lock in some profit. I sold the rest of my stock in 2010.

Two positive things to say about this stock is that it still has a cash flow and they it has a lot of cash on hand. Cash is equal to 28% of the stock price in CDN$ and US$.

I made money on this stock, but I bought it in 1999 when it was doing good tech. I made some 20% per year total return. I know that I generally buy dividend paying stock, but I do like tech stocks and I bought this stock just for capital gains.

This stock peaked in around 2011. If you look at growth, it is good for the last 10 years, but there has been no growth over the past 5 years. The company is reporting on US$, so I will use this currency. Revenue is down by 25.9% over the past 5 years and up by 9.5% over the past 10 years. Analysts see only a further decline in Revenue. If you compare the 12 months to the end of the financial years of February 2015 to the 12 months to the end of the first quarter of 2016, Revenue is down by 9%.

This is repeated in cash flows where CFPS is down by 24.3% and up by 19.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you compare the 12 months to the end of the financial years of February 2015 to the 12 months to the end of the first quarter of 2016, Cash Flow is down by 20%.

For EPS, there have been no positive values for the last 3 years. In total EPS is down by 113% and 259% over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts do not see any positive earnings for this stock over the new few years. If you compare the 12 months to the end of the financial years of February 2015 to the 12 months to the end of the first quarter of 2016, EPS is up by 46%. However, this just points to lower losses, not any positive earnings.

The debt ratios are very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 3.06, the Debt Ratio is 2.10 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.91 and 0.91 for the financial year ending in February 2015.

The 10 year P/S Ratio is 1.97 and the current P/S Ratio is 1.15 a values some 41% lower. This current P/S Ratio is based on 2016 Revenue of $3512M US$ and a stock price of $7.66 US$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, Revenue is declining.

If you look at what analysts suggest for 2017, Revenue of $1809M and the ratio becomes 2.24. On the other hand analyst's estimates can be very wrong for the current year, let alone for future years. If you use the Revenue for the 12 months to the current quarter, the P/S Ratio is 1.34 and this is 32% lower than the 10 year P/S Ratio.

I get a 10 year Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.74. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.78 a values some 22% lower. This current ratio is based on a stock price of $7.66 US$ and cash flow estimate of $598M US$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.29. The current P/B Ratio is 1.16 based on BVPS of $8.68 CDN$ and a stock price of $10.03 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $8.75 US$. This implies a total return of 14.23% all from capital gain.

This article in Business Insider talks about Blackberry developing an android phone. This article inRecombu documents this company's rise and fall. This article in CanTech talks about how Blackberry will work when it does not make phones.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

BlackBerry Ltd. develops hardware and software solutions for mobile communications. It provides platforms and solutions, which support multiple wireless network standards through the development of integrated hardware and software services. Its web site is here Blackberry.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

EnerCare Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth stock, expensive. This stock has turn back into a dividend growth stock. However, I would consider it expensive until it can start to growth Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow. Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is too high. See my spreadsheet at eci.htm.

I do not own this stock of EnerCare Inc. (TSX-ECI, OTC-CSUWF). I started to follow this stock in 2009 when it was an income trust. This was one of a few income trusts that I followed because it was recommended by MPL communications.

When this company became a corporation, it cut its dividend by almost 50%. That leads to dividends declining by 4.4% and 9.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the company has again started to raise dividends and they are up by 1.4% per year over the past 4 years.

In 2015 they raised the dividend an unprecedented 20.7%. Dividends are still paid monthly. Dividends are still almost 35% lower than what they were in 2008, but this is a big commitment on their part to again be a dividend growth company.

Unfortunately they cannot afford these dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2014 was 201%, a decline from the 5 year median of 456%, but still not a good payout ratio. Although analysts expect this ratio to improve, it will not be below 100% anytime soon.

You can use other dividend payout ratios such as for CFPS where the DPR is 52% for 2014 and has a 5 year median value of 35%. For the next few years this ratio is expected to be around 35%. You can also use the Funds from Operations (FFO). Here the DPR for 2014 is 58.5% and this is expected to go lower in the future.

Shares have increased by 13% and 6.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. I will look at per share values because of this. The Revenue growth is low to moderate. FFO growth is non-existent. Earnings growth is non-existent to low. Cash Flow growth is non-existent.

Revenue per share has increased by 0.8% and 3.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue growth is expected to be good in 2015. FFO has declined by 1.9% and 2.89% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. It is expected to well in 2015 at around 47%. If you compare the 12 month periods to the end of 2014 and to the end of the second quarter, FFO has grown at 48%.

EPS has declined by 5% and increased by 0.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. ESP is expected to growth 50% this year. If you compare the 12 month periods to the end of 2014 and to the end of the second quarter, EPS has grown at 2.9%. Analysts missed the market in 2014 expecting EPS of $0.47 and EPS came in at $0.34.

CFPS is down by 11.4% and 4.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect growth of around 40% in CF this year. If you compare the 12 month periods to the end of 2014 and to the end of the second quarter, CF has declined at 2.5%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share ratios are 53.33, 60.37 and 67.20. These are out of line for this type of stock. The 10 year corresponding values are lower, but still too high at 28.63, 35.71 and 42.78. The current P/E Ratio at 27.98 is high for this type of stock.

The Price/Graham Price Ratio is too high at 1.85. The Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is currently too high at 2.74, and the P/S Ratio is too high at 2.35.

The 5 year high Price/FFO Ratio is 9.34 and the 10 year P/FFO is 8.84. The current P/FFO is 10.57 suggests that the stock price is relatively high. The current P/FFO is based on FFO 2015 estimate of 1.35 and a stock price of $14.27.

The 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 4.82 and the current P/CF Ratio at 6.83 is some 33% higher. The current ratio is based on 2015 CFPS estimate of $2.22 and a stock price of $14.27. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. I wonder about the CFPS estimate as per above comments.

Looking at the analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $16.70. This implies a 12 month total return of 22.92% with 5.89% from dividends and 17.03% from capital gains.

An article in the HPAC Magazine talks about this company's rebranding. This article in Watch List News talks about this being rated by some analysts. In this Motley Fool article by Joseph Solitro, he says this is a cheap stock to buy and hold forever. He compares his current P/E of 29.4 to his 5 year average P/E Ratio of 450.9 to suggest that the stock is cheap. You have to wonder about this as I consider a P/E Ratio of 450 to be a rather silly one.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

EnerCare Inc. owns a portfolio of waterheaters and other portfolio assets, which they rent to primarily residential customers. They rent out waterheaters in the GTA and southern Ontario. EnerCare also owns EnerCare Connections Inc., a leading sub-metering company, with metering contracts for condominium and apartment suites in Ontario, Alberta and elsewhere in Canada. Its web site is here EnerCare Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

TECSYS Inc. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about cash flows and working capital continue...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is expensive, momentum lost. This stock has recently lost its upward momentum. I still like this stock and will be holding on to what I have, but it seems a little pricey at present. Tech stocks have often been pricey and gain can be made on short term momentum, but this stock seems to have lost that lately. See my spreadsheet at tcs.htm.

I own this stock of TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC- TCYSF). I came across this stock when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock as a filler stock. I consider a filler stock to be one to soak up small amounts of investment money that I have left over in my account, especially in the TFSA after I have made my main purchase for the year.

There is a lot of insider ownership by the Brereton family and a cursory view I come up with some 40% ownership by this family. The Chairman owns stock worth some $30.3M and about 27% of the outstanding stock. The CFO owns shares worth $4.2M and some 3.8% of the outstanding stock. They are both members of the Brereton family. Insider selling was at $0.04M and some 0.03% of the outstanding shares.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.69, 29.91 and 37.13. The corresponding 10 years values are a lot lower at 19.65, 16.41 and 19.65. The current P/E Ratio is 34.62 based on a stock price of $9.00. Based on 5 year P/E Ratios the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $3.33. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.94, 1.19 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.70 based on a stock price of $9.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. On an absolute basis, a P/GP Ratio of 2.70 is high.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.47. The current P/B Ratio at 4.74 is some 223% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. On an absolute basis, a P/B Ratio of 4.74 is high.

The current dividend yield is 1.11%. The historical low is 1.09% and so the current one is getting close to historical low. However, history on this stocks dividend only goes back 7 years. The 5 year median is 2.43% and the historical median is 2.64%. The current one is some 54% and 58% lower than these values. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations and the consensus would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $11.50. This implies a total return of 28.89% with 27.78% from capital gains and 1.11% from dividends.

This article in OCTA Finance says PI Financial has raised the target price on this stock to $11.00. This March 2015 article in Market Wired talks about this company doing a bought deal offering of common shares. They will be selling 562K shares at $8.90. This press release at Market Watch talks about TECSYS focusing on complex supply chains.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, August 18, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

TECSYS Inc. is a supply chain management software provider that delivers powerful enterprise distribution, warehouse and transportation logistics software solutions. The company's customers include about 600 mid-size and Fortune 1000 corporations in healthcare, heavy equipment, third-party logistics, and general wholesale high- volume distribution industries. Its web site is here TECSYS.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

TECSYS Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth small cap. See my spreadsheet at tcs.htm.

I own this stock of TECSYS Inc. (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF). I came across this stock when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock as a filler stock. I consider a filler stock to be one to soak up small amounts of investment money that I have left over in my account, especially in the TFSA after I have made my main purchase for the year.

Dividend is currently low, but it used to be higher. The current dividend yield is 1.11%, the 5 year median dividend yield is 2.05% and when I bought this stock in 2011 it was 3.11%. Dividend growth is moderate at 12.5% and 12.3% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. Dividends just started in 2008.

Their last dividend increase was in 2015 and the increase was for 11.1%. The Dividend Payout Ratio is good with the 5 year median for EPS 66.7% and for CFPS at 26.5%. The DPR for 2014 was similar with DPR for EPS at 69.2% and for CFPS at 27.7%. These are expected to be much lower in 2015.

The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 41.51% and 20.21% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 2.44% and 1.36% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 39.07% and 18.85% per year.

Since I bought this stock in 2011, my total return is 46.39% per year with 43.67% per year from capital gains and 2.72% per year from dividends. For me dividends have covered 16.8% of the cost of my stock and I am earnings 5.2% on my initial investment.

The outstanding shares have not changed much with them being up by 0.2% and down by 1.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares in the past have grown due to Stock Options, but the Stock Option plan has been cancelled. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow are all good.

Revenue is up by 9.3% and 9.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 9.1% and 10.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect Revenue growth of around 13% for 2016. The financial year ends at the end April of each year, so the financial year I am reporting on ended April 30, 2015.

There were mostly earning losses until 2007. The total growth in EPS over the past 10 years is 1400%. I cannot do a compound rate because 10 years ago there was an earning loss. EPS is down by 5.2% over the past 5 years. However, the earnings on this company fluctuate and if you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 year the increase is 21.4% per year. Analysts expect good growth in EPS for 2016 at 100%.

The Cash Flow has grown at 26.4% and 13.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The CFPS has grown at 26.2% and 14.95 per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Return on Equity has not been great. The ROE has only been above 10% once in the past 5 years and three times in the past 10 years. The ROE for 2015 (April) is 6.5% and the 5 year median is just 6.8%. The ROE on comprehensive income is a little higher at 6.9% for 2015 with a 5 year median at 6.9% also.

The Debt Ratios are good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.59. The Debt Ratio is 1.97 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.03 and 1.03, respectively.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, August 19, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

TECSYS Inc. is a supply chain management software provider that delivers powerful enterprise distribution, warehouse and transportation logistics software solutions. The company's customers include about 600 mid-size and Fortune 1000 corporations in healthcare, heavy equipment, third-party logistics, and general wholesale high- volume distribution industries. Its web site is here TECSYS.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, August 17, 2015

Newfoundland Capital Corp.

On my other blog I am today writing about stocks I looked at more closely in my monthly update, part 2 continue...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is reasonable, but above median. I think that the current stock price looks reasonable. I do not know why the one analyst thinks that the stock price will go down or maybe he just sees the whole marketing going down. We are probably overdue for a bear market. This is not a dividend growth stock, so at the moment I am not interested in it. See my spreadsheet at ncc.htm.

I do not own this stock of Newfoundland Capital Corp. (TSX-NCC, OTC-none). I started to follow this stock as it was suggested as a decent dividend paying stock for investment purposes in the latter part of 2009. It is not on any dividend lists that I follow so I took a look at it.

This is a dividend paying stock, but not a dividend growth stock. Dividends have gone down as well as up and the current dividend is the same as was paid in 2008 before the dividend was cut in 2009 and then restarted in 2010. Over the longer term, dividends have gone but, but not so over the shorter term. The Dividend growth over the past 10 years is at 16% per year.

For me to consider a stock to be a dividend growth one, it would have to be consistent in paying dividends as well as increasing them over time. In 2009 the dividend cut was not the only one in recent history. This stock paid dividends from 1997 to 1999 and then stopped them from 2000 to 2003. They may have had a good reason to do so, but this is hard on shareholders who invest in stock to get a dividend income.

This stock has done well over the past 5 and 10 years to date. The 5 and 10 year total return is at 12.41% and 9.21% per year. The portion of this total return from dividends is at 1.71% and 1.59% per year. The portion of this total return from capital gains is at 10.70% and 7.63% per year.

The outstanding shares have decreased over the past 5 and 10 years at 3.1% and 2.2% per year. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. This means that I will focus on Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flows not the per share values. Revenue growth is good. Earnings growth is non-existent to low and cash flow growth is good.

Revenue has grown at 8% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. It is expected to grow about 5.5% in 2015. Net Income or Earnings have declined by 6.1% and grown by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings have fluctuated a lot, so it is worthwhile look at the 5 year running average growth and this is good at 11.6% and 13.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Strong earnings growth of 19% is expected in 2015.

Cash Flow has grown by 12.2% and 12.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts do not expect much growth from cash flow for 2015 at less than 1%. However, cash flow has grown by 10.7% if you compare the 12 month period to the end of the second quarter to the 12 month period to the end of 2014.

Of the debt ratios, the Liquidity Ratio is the weakest. For 2014 it is just 0.94. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. However, if you add in cash flow after dividends it becomes 1.47. This means that the company will rely on cash flow to cover current liabilities. The Debt Ratio for 2014 was good at 1.65. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 2.47 and 1.45 for 2014.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.16, 22.58 and 25.00. The 10 years ratios are lower at 13.06, 15.86 and 18.66 and are more reasonable for this sort of stock. The current P/E ratio is 15.09 based on a stock price of $11.47 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.76. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, even relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $9.40. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.14, 1.29 and 1.44. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.22 based on a stock price of $11.47. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. Stock price is below the relative median.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.03. The current P/B Ratio is 2.22 based on a stock price of $11.47 and current BVPS of $5.17. The current P/B Ratio is some 9.2% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. Stock price is above the relative median.

The current dividend yield is 1.31% based on dividends of $0.15 and a stock price of $11.47. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.75% and the current dividend yield is some 25% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. However, this historical median dividend yield at 1.54% is just 15% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. Stock price is above the relative median.

There is just one analyst following this stock and the rating given is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $10.00. This implies a negative total return of 11.51% with a capital loss of 12.82% and dividends of 1.31%.

In this news article in The Chronicle Heard Newfoundland Capital Corp says their profits dropped in the second quarter due to an income tax increase. This interesting article in Business in Vancouver talks about investors seeing ratio as a better business than TV.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Newfoundland Capital Corporation Limited also owns and operates Newcap Radio. Newcap Radio is one of Canada's leading radio broadcasters with 79 licenses across Canada. The Company reaches millions of listeners each week through a variety of formats and is a recognized industry leader in radio programming, sales and networking. Its web site is here Newfoundland Capital Corp.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.