Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about the presentations at the World Money Show in Toronto by Kim Githler and by Jim Jubak.

I do not own this stock of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. The title of the article in Investor's Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. Jennifer is now a Portfolio Manager for Manulife Asset Management Limited.

When I look at insider trading, I find $4.7M of insider selling with $4.2M of net insider selling. Net insider selling is not a lot as it is only 0.44% of market cap. There is some insider ownership with the CEO owing shares worth $58.4M and a couple of officers owning shares worth $24.9 and $57.7M. Also, the two founders of this company have retired from the board.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.47, 13.73 and 11.60. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 9.47, 14.46 and 17.58. The current P/E Ratio is 12.56 based on a stock price of $29.02 and 2014 EPS estimates of $2.31. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $12.68. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 2.01 and 2.44. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.29. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. However, these P/GP Ratios are rather high for this ratio.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share ratio is 6.29. The current P/B Ratio is 9.39 a value some 49% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 2.93 and the current Dividend yield of 3.10 is some 5.7% higher. The historical average Dividend yield is 3.51%, but the historical median dividend yield is lower at 2.84. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The most recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $35.50. This implies a total return of $25.43% with 3.10% from dividends and 22.33% from capital gains.

There is an article about this company on newswire which announces the first fiscal quarter of 2014 and the fact that the two founders are retiring from the board of this company.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price reasonable, but founders have left. See my spreadsheet at gs.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, October 20, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Gluskin Sheff is an independent investment firm that manages portfolios for high net-worth individuals and institutional clients. Its web site is here Gluskin Sheff.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.

On my other blog I am today writing about going to World Money Show Toronto. continue...

I do not own this stock of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (TSX-GS, OTC-GLUSF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. The title of the article in Investor's Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. Jennifer is now a Portfolio Manager for Manulife Asset Management Limited.

I did a spreadsheet on this stock in February 2010 and was not impressed with the stock. I chose this stock because I recognized the names of Gluskin and Sheff. I reviewed problems with list in February 2010. This stock peaked in 2006 and had not recovered by August 2011. This includes Revenues, Earnings and Book Value. The Stock Price and Cash Flow peaked in 2007.

It has taken a while, but this stock has now fully recovered from problems it was having in 2006 and 2007. In the meantime shareholders have not only gotten a good dividend yield but special dividends were paid in all of the past 6 years.

I had been a bit negative on this stock since I started to review it. However, perhaps that was uncalled for. The gains that this company has made in the last couple of years have been impressive. On the other hand, analysts seem to think that revenue, earnings and cash flow are going to drop significantly for the financial year ending in June 2015. They expect revenue to drop 24%, earnings to drop 36% and cash flow to drop 65%.

So let's first talk about dividends. Dividends are moderate with a moderate increase. The current dividend yield is 3.1% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 2.84%. The dividends have increased over the past 5 and 7 years at 10.5% and 14% per year. The last dividend increase was for 12.5% and occurred in 2014.

Another thing with dividends to discuss is special dividends. Each year over the past 6 years there has been median special dividend of $0.80 a share. This has delivered a median extra yield of 4.3% for these 6 years.

The last thing to discuss is Dividend Payout Ratios. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 79% and the CFPS is 72%. The DPR for the financial year ending in June 2014 are 99.3% and 85.8%. These figures include special dividends. For financial year of 2012 the company paid out more in dividends than their EPS and CFPS.

The total returns over the past 5 and 9 years are at 14.61% and 10.83% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 7.15% and 5.13% per year. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 7.46% and 5.70% per year.

The outstanding shares have not increased over the past 5 years, but have increased by 16.4% per year over the past 9 years. There has been good to excellent growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow over the past 5 and 9 years. The last 5 years growth is generally better than the 9 year growth.

Revenue is up by 29% and 17.9% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. Revenue per Share is up by 28.6% and 2.9% over the past 5 and 9 years. In connection with this, because it is an investment management company, we should also look at Assets under Management (AUM). AUM has growth at 10.9% and 9.2% per year over the past 5 and 8 years.

EPS has grown at 37.6% and 56.5% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. Cash Flow has grown at 34.9% and 23.5% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. CFPS has grown at 34.4% and 34.9% over the past 5 and 9 years.

Return on Equity has been very high with the 5 year median ROE for 2014 at 50.7% and the ROE for the financial year ending June 2014 at 116.2%. The ROE on comprehensive income is about the same with the 5 year median at 50.7% and the ROE for the current financial year at 114.5%.

There is a problem here with ROE. The desirable ROE is between 12% and 15%. Anything higher than 15% and analysts begin to worry about leverage. However, the leverage on this stock is not than high at 2.11. A very high ROE does not necessarily mean better financial performance of a company. There is some discussion of ROE at Ready Ratios and Investopedia.

Debt Ratios are fine with the current Liquidity Ratio at 1.81, the Debt Ratio at 1.90 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 2.11 and 1.11.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth stock, special dividends. See my spreadsheet at gs.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, October 21, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Gluskin Sheff is an independent investment firm that manages portfolios for high net-worth individuals and institutional clients. Its web site is here Gluskin Sheff.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, October 17, 2014

Canadian Pacific Railway 2

I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP), but I used to. It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and choice CN as my railway stock. I am following this stock because it is a dividend growth stock.

When I look at insider trading, I find some $0.8M of insider buying and $532.3M of insider selling. The net insider selling is some 1.5% of the outstanding stocks. I notice that William Ackerman seems to be selling off shares. Last year when I looked he held 13.5% of outstanding shares and now he holds some 8% of the outstanding shares.

The increase in outstanding share due to stock options was 1.5M for 2013 and this is some 0.86% of the outstanding shares as is fine. However, last year shares were increased by 3.9M shares and 2.2% of the outstanding shares and this is a lot. (Anything over 1% is a lot for an increase in outstanding shares for stock options.)

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.84, 17.25 and 20.66. These are moving up as the corresponding P/E Ratios for the past 10 years is at 16.67, 13.79 and 16.67. The current P/E Ratio is 25.03 based on a stock price of $210.49 and 2014 earnings estimates of $8.41. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

The current Dividend Yield is 0.67% and the 5 year median dividend yield at 1.77% is some 62% higher. The historical average and median Dividend Yield are 1.83% and 1.53%. These are both a lot higher than the current dividend yield. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive. Even the historical high at 1.08% is higher than the current yield.

I get a Graham Price of $87.74. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.85, 1.03 and 1.27. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.40 based on a stock price of $210.49. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.88 and the current P/B Ratio at 5.17 is some 175% higher. This is based on a stock price of $210.49 and BVPS of $40.68. This stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $230.00. This implies a total return of 9.93% with 9.27% from capital gains and 0.67% from dividends.

This article in the Financial Post talks about the implications of a CP takeover of CSX Corp. The Motley Fool looks at both CP and CN (TSX-CNR).

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is relatively expensive. I would not buy this stock at this price because of the low dividend yield. When the dividend yield is below 1% it takes a very long time to earn a descent dividend yield on your original purchase of a stock.

Of course the stock market is still falling and we are at least in a market correction period. Who knows, the stock price might just become a reasonable or even a cheap one if this market correction continues. See my spreadsheet at cp.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, October 16, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

This company is a transcontinental railway operating in Canada and the U.S. Its rail network serves the principal centers of Canada, from Montreal to Vancouver and the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions. Alliances with other carriers extend its market reach throughout the U.S. and into Mexico. Canadian Pacific Solutions provides logistics and supply chain expertise. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Canadian Pacific Railway

I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP), but I used to. It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and choice CN as my railway stock. I am following this stock because it is a dividend growth stock.

I am just looking at dividends since 2002 which is what this company has paid after Canadian Pacific Limited split itself into 5 separate companies. The dividend yield on this stock is on the low side with moderate dividend increases. The current dividend is just 0.67% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.77. This historical median dividend yield is 1.53%. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividend is at 7.2% and 10.6% per year.

The company is paying out a moderate amount of their EPS and CFPS. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is 28% and for CFPS is at 34%. The corresponding DPR for 2013 is at 28% for EPS and 13% for CFPS.

This stock has done well for its shareholders recently with 5 and 10 years with total returns at 48.05% and 19.06% per year. The dividend portion of this return is at 2.02% and 1.23% per year over these periods. The capital gains portion of this return is at 46.03% and 17.83% per year over these periods.

Outstanding shares have increased by 2.7% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and decreased due to Buy Backs. The growth in cash flow has been the best with moderate to very good increases over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has increased moderately over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has low to moderate growth over the past 5 and 10 years.

Growth in revenue per share was at 1.8% and 4.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in EPS is at 4.5% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has grown at 7.2% and 17.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Analyst feel that Revenue per Share will growth faster over the next two years, but they also expect better growth for EPS and Cash Flow. At some point, revenue will have to pick up the pace to match earnings and cash flow growth or earnings and cash flow growth will have to slow.

Over the past 10 years the Return on Equity has been below 10% and both these years were in the last 5 years. The ROE for 2013 was good at 12.3% and it has a 5 year median of 11.3%. The ROE on comprehensive income was better for 2013 at 30.2%, but the 5 year median was lower at 8.7%.

The Liquidity Ratio was ok at 147 in 2013 however this ratio has varied a lot and the 5 year median is just 1.03. When you add in cash flow after dividends the Liquidity Ratio is 2.71, but the 5 year median is quite a bit lower at 1.31. The Debt Ratios are good with a 2013 ratio of 1.71 and a 5 year median ratio of 1.55.

The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine, but I would like to see them lower. The 2013 ratios were at 2.40 and 1.40 respectively. The 5 year median values are at 2.53 and 1.53.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: dividend growth stock. I have Canadian Nation Railway (TSX-CNR) in my portfolio so I will not be buying this stock at this point in time. However, I can see the value of having a big railway stock in your portfolio. They are both dividend growth stocks. See my spreadsheet at cp.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, October 17, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

This company is a transcontinental railway operating in Canada and the U.S. Its rail network serves the principal centers of Canada, from Montreal to Vancouver and the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions. Alliances with other carriers extend its market reach throughout the U.S. and into Mexico. Canadian Pacific Solutions provides logistics and supply chain expertise. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Kombat Copper Inc.

On my other blog I am today writing about going to World Money Show Toronto continue...

I own this stock of Kombat Copper Inc. (TSXV-KBT, OTC-PNTZF). I originally brought this stock in 2000 as Tathacus Resources Ltd. because it was doing interesting things. It was part of a basket of small caps that I was buying at that time.

There was a reverse takeover (RTO) of this company on Apr 28, 2011 by Pan Terra Industries Inc. Symbol PNT. On May 2, 2012 there was a name change from Pan Terra Industries (PNT) to Kombat Copper Inc. (KBT). The last time I looked my investment in this stock was worth $6.00. It is not worth selling and I am curious what will happen to this stock.

This is the fifth year in a row that this company has had no revenue. Needless to say they have had no profit or cash flow over this period. The company has only had a profit in 2004 and 2007 over the past 10 years. These years were before the reverse takeover. The last two times the company had a positive cash flow was in 2001 and 2007.

The only other thing I should remark on is that they have cash on hand that is equal to $.01 per share. There is not much else to say. I am still tracking this as I am curious about where the company will go.

They are distributing annual financial statements to shareholders, but the latest one on their site is the quarterly reports for 2012. However, they seem to have recent press releases on their side or at least ones dated in 2014. On their site they also have a presentation for investors dated September 2014.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Interesting diversion. See my spreadsheet at kbt.htm.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Kombat Copper Inc. is a publicly traded Canadian exploration and development company. Its core operations are focused on copper resources in Namibia, one of the world's most prospective copper regions, where they have substantial assets in place Its web site is here Kombat.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Teck Resources Ltd.

On my other blog I am today writing why the stock market might be treading lower. continue...

I do not own this stock of Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK). I bought this stock in 2008 and sold in 2009. I bought this stock because the company purchased Fording Canadian Coal Trust at exactly the wrong time and got into financial difficulties and the stock price dropped off a cliff as they had to cut dividends. When the stock recovered somewhat in 2009, I sold for a profit.

This stock is currently paying a dividend and has a yield of 5% and a 5 year median dividend yield of 2.29%. It is probably needless for me to say that the stock price has been dropping lately. The 5 and 10 year dividends have fallen 2.1% per year over the past 5 years and have grown at 24.6% per year over the past 10 years.

This company has had different dividend policies over its life, so it is hard to say what they will do in the future. For example, dividends were flat for a long time before they started to increase in 2004. They paid no dividends in 2009 and then restarted them in 2010.

This stock is down some 72% from its high in 2011. For 2014 it is down some 35% so far this year. Their problem really stems from their buying of Fording Coal in 2008. I had bought this stock at the end of 2008 when they last cut their dividend. I held it until mid-2009 and sold for a 240% profit. Of course it went much higher over the next few years, but I had made a profit so that was nice.

The last 2 years have not been very good for this company. Revenue, earnings and cash flow have very little growth over the past 5 years because of this and analysts expect the same for 2014. The 5 year growth for Revenue per Share is 2.8% per year, for EPS is 2.8% per year. For Cash Flow per Share there is a decrease of 9.6% per year.

The Total Return over the past 5 and 10 years is low because of what has happened recently to the stock price. The Total return over the past 5 years is a loss of 10.70% per year and over the past 10 years is an increase at 3.46% per year. The capital losses over the 5 and 10 years are at 13.33% per year and 0.25% per year. The Dividend portion of the total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 2.62% and 3.71% per year.

The debt ratios are good for this company. However, the Return on Equity has been quite low for the past two years and is expected to be quite low for 2014. The ROE for 2013 was at 5.2%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2013 was better at 7.1%.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Hold as are most of the recommendations. The 12 month stock price is $27.30. This suggests that analysts expect a strong recovery in this stock as the 12 month stock price would give a total return of 56.58% from today's price of 18.01. The dividend portion of this return would be 5% and the capital gains would be 51.58%.

If you look just at Price/Earnings per Share Ratio, the current ratio is rather high for this stock at 20.94 as the company is not expected to earn much this year. The 2014 EPS estimate is just $0.86 a decrease of 48% from 2013's earnings. The second quarterly financials shows EPS declining.

However, other measures say a very different thing. Take the Graham price, which is at $24.94. The 10 year Price/Graham price Ratios are 0.64, 0.88 and 1.15. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.72. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

The historical high dividend yield is 3.10% and the current dividend yield at 5% is some 61% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap. The Price/Book Value per Share suggests the same thing as the 10 year P/B Ratio is 1.62 and the current P/B Ratio is 0.56 a value some 65% lower.

There is a recent MPL Communications Daily Advice email on this company. It talks about Teck's coal mines being cash-flow positive despite world-wide glut of coal. The Motley Fool thinks it is not worthwhile betting on Teck at this point.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is relatively cheap. This is a volatile resource stock and I believe money can be made in the ups and down of the stock price. However, I do not see this stock as a long term buy. See my spreadsheet at tck.htm.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Teck is a diversified resource company involved in mining and mineral development with major business units focused on copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, gold and energy. This company has interests in several oil sands developments. The company explores for resources in the Americas, the Asia Pacific Region, Europe and Africa. Its web site is here Teck.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, October 10, 2014

Linamar Corporation 2

I do not own this stock of Linamar Corporation (TSX-LNR, OTC-LIMAF). I looked at this stock back in 2000 and it was not a stock I thought fit my investment philosophy. In 2008 I read an article that recommended this company as a dividend stock with good value and so I started to follow this stock.

When I look at insider trading for the past year, I find $1.5M of insider buying and $0.8M of insider selling with $0.7M of net insider buying. These are very small amounts. There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $169M and 5.9% of outstanding shares and the Chairman owning shares worth around $675.6M and 23.6% of outstanding shares.

In 2013 outstanding shares were increased by 56,000 or 0.09% for stock options. The book value of these options was at $1.2M and this number of shares was worth around 2.5M at the end of 2013. These are a very low numbers for stock options.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios were 6.45, 9.50 and 12.55. These are close to the 10 year corresponding values of 7.99, 9.95 and 12.31. The current P/E Ratio is 12.10 based on a stock price of $53.50 and 2014 EPS estimate of $4.42. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but towards to high end of that range.

I get a Graham Price of $48.06. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.59, 0.76 and 0.95. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.11. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.29 and the current P/B Ratio at 2.30 is some 79% higher. This is based on a BVPS of $23.22 and a stock price of $53.50. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get 5 year median dividend yield of 1.42% and this is some 47% higher than the current dividend yield of 0.75%. Also, the historical average and median dividend yields are 1.47% and 1.25% which are 49% and 40% higher than the current dividend yield of 0.75%. All this suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I get Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $71.30. This implies a total return of 34.02% with 33.27% from capital gains and 0.75% from dividends.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Buy when it crashes, relatively expensive now. This is an industrial stock and it has its ups and downs. If you want to make a decent dividend yield on your purchase price, buy this stock when it is at a low. Also, I would not buy any dividend growth stock with a dividend yield less than 1% as it would take too long to get to a decent dividend yield on your original purchase. See my spreadsheet at lnr.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, October 09, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Linamar Corporation is a diversified global manufacturing company of highly engineered products. It is a world-class designer and diversified manufacturer of precision metallic components and systems for the automotive industry, and mobile industrial markets. Its web site is here Linamar.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Linamar Corporation

I do not own this stock of Linamar Corporation (TSX-LNR, OTC-LIMAF). I looked at this stock back in 2000 and it was not a stock I thought fit my investment philosophy. In 2008 I read an article that recommended this company as a dividend stock with good value. This stock used to be on the Investment reporter portfolio stock list as an average risk stock. However, it has been taken off this list.

This company raises their dividends infrequently. However, the 5 and 10 year increases are at 5.92% and 7.18% per year, but the current yield is low at just 0.7% and the 5 year median yield is also low, but decent at 1.42%. So this stock has a low yield and moderate increases.

This means that if you bought this stock today, in 15 years you could be making 1.7% on your money or in 20 years be making 2.2% on your money. However, people who bought this stock 5 years ago when it crashed and paid a average price in that year would be earning 4.5% return on their original purchase price.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are very low. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is at 9% and for CFPS at 6.2%. The DPR for 2013 for EPS is at 9% and for CFPS is at 4.4%. The DPRs for 2014 are expected to be roughly the same.

Shareholders have done well over the past 5 and 10 years with total returns at 32.25% and 14.27% per year over these periods. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is at 1.37% and 1.01% per year over these periods. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is at 30.88% and 13.26% per year over these periods.

Outstanding shares have not really changed over the past 5 or 10 years. Shares are increased for Stock Options and decreased for Buy Backs. There has been good growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow. It is interesting that in all cases the 5 year running averages growth over the past 5 and 10 years is lower than growth over the past 5 and 10 years. This seems to be because growth in this company is volatile.

The Revenue per Share growth is 9.7% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share growth using 5 year running averages is lower at 6.1% and 8.2% per year.

Earnings per Share growth is at 27.4% and 20% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at EPS growth over the past 5 and 10 years using 5 year running averages the growth is just at 3.4% and 7% per year.

Cash Flow per Share growth is 12% and 11.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS growth over the past 5 and 10 years using 5 year running average is also lower at 5.2% and 7.7% per year.

The debt ratios on this stock are very good. The Liquidity Ratio is at 1.60, the Debt Ratio is at 2.06 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 1.94 and 0.94. This is probably because of insider ownership.

The Return on Equity has been above 10% in 9 of the 10 past years. They had one year of earnings loss in this period. The Return on Equity for 2013 is at 17% with the 5 year median at 11.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2013 was 23.7% and the 5 year median ROE was at 8.1%. Over the past 2 years the ROE on comprehensive income was higher than for net income. This can point to the company's profits being of good quality.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Stock. However, note that dividends are only raised infrequently. Shareholders have done well with this stock, but as for dividends you can see that it really pays to buy when stock is at a good price. I personally will not buy any stock with a dividend yield under 1%. It just takes too long to get a really decent return on your original investment. See my spreadsheet at lnr.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, October 10, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Linamar Corporation is a diversified global manufacturing company of highly engineered products. It is a world-class designer and diversified manufacturer of precision metallic components and systems for the automotive industry, and mobile industrial markets. Its web site is here Linamar.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Medtronic Inc. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for October 2014 continue... I do not own this stock of Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). In 2009 I was looking for a good US stock for my US$ account. I had heard good things about this stock and also it is in Health Care sector which is a weak sector in Canada. Also, we just do not have the massive companies in Canada that the US has.

The insider trading record shows just $1.2M of insider selling and no insider buying. This is an extremely small amount of insider selling as compared to the market cap of this company. There is some insider ownership with the Chairman and CEO owning shares worth around $37M and the CFO owning shares worth around $12M.

For the year ending April 2014 outstanding shares were increased by 31M which is around 3.1% of the outstanding shares. This is a lot considering that most company increase outstanding shares for stock options around 0.50%. The corresponding value for 2013 and 2012 were an increase of shares by 10M and 1% and 4M and 0.40%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.91, 12.77 and 14.64. The corresponding 10 year Ratios are higher at 14.04, 19.10 and 21.58. The current P/E Ratio is 16.17 based on a stock price of $64.36 and 2015 EPS estimate of $3.98. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $41.50. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.19, 1.65 and 2.05. The current P/GP Ratio is at 1.55 based on a stock price of $64.36. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.20 and the current P/B Ratio is 3.35 based on BVPS of $19.23 and a stock price of $64.36. The current P/B Ratio is just 4.5% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

If you look at the 5 year median dividend yield it is 2.46% and the current dividend yield at 1.90% is lower by 23% than the 5 year median dividend yield. This is based on a Dividend of $1.22 and a stock price of $64.36. This suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, if you look at the historical average dividend yield which is just 1.54% and the historical median dividend yield, which is 0.72%, the story changes a lot. By historical measures of the dividend yield, the current stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation out be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $73.60. This implies a total return of 16.25% with 1.90% from dividends and 14.36% from capital gains.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is reasonable. See my spreadsheet at mdt.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, October 07, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Medtronic Inc.

I do not own this stock of Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT). In 2009 I was looking for a good US stock for my US$ account. I had heard good things about this stock and also it is in Health Care sector which is a weak sector in Canada. Also, we just do not have the massive companies in Canada that the US has.

This is certainly a dividend growth company. The dividend yield is moderate and the growth in dividends is moderate to good. The current dividend yield is 1.88% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 2.46%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 8.35% and 14.47% per year.

As a Canadian, I am glad I have not been invested in this stock. For the 5 year periods ending in 2005 to the 5 year period ending in 2012, I would have lost money every year in total returns. For the 5 year period ending in 2012 the total return would be 0.56% per year. For the financial year ending in April 2013 I would have finally made some money with a total return of 13.18% per year.

The total returns to date for Canadians is at 12.77% and 2.22% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends would be 2% and 1.22% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains would be 10.77% and 1% per year. This is in CDN$.

The for total returns to date for Americans the 5 and 10 year total return would be at 9.95% and 4.39% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends would be 2.04% and 1.77% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains would be 7.91% and 2.62% per year. This is in US$.

The stock price hit a high in 2008 and it took until 2014 to surpass this high. This, of course, points out clearly that you have to sure you at least pay a reasonable price for a stock to make any money. If you pay too much you could end up not making any money no matter how good the company is.

The outstanding shares have decreased by 2.3% and 1.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares have increased due to Stock Options and they have decreased due to Buy Backs. Because outstanding shares have decreased, you need to be concerned with growth as well as per share growth. For example you should look at Revenue growth as well as Revenue per Share growth.

Also, the 5 year growth per year for this stock is lower than the 10 years growth per year as far as Revenues go. However, this reverses for Earnings and Cash Flow.

Revenue has grown at 3.1% and 6.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$. Revenue per Share has grown at 5.5% and 9.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$.

Earnings or Net Income growth is at 7.2% and 4.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$. Earnings per Share growth is at 9.4% and 6.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$.

Cash Flow gr5owth is at 5.6% and 8.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$. Cash Flow per Share growth is at 8% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$.

The Return on Equity has been over 10% each year over the past 10 years. The ROE for 2014 is 15.8% and the 5 year median ROE is at 19.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 is just slightly lower at 15.2% and the 5 year median is 18.5%.

The debt ratios are very good on this stock. The Liquidity Ratio is 3.82 for 2014. The Debt Ratio is 2.05 for 2014 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.95 and 0.95 for 2014.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: US Health Care dividend growth stock. See my spreadsheet at mdt.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, October 8, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Medtronic is the world's leading medical technology company, pioneering device-based therapies that restore health, extend life and alleviate pain. Primary products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, among others. Medtronic operates its business in one reportable segment, that of manufacturing and selling device-based medical therapies. The company does business in more than 120 countries. The company's product lines include cardiac rhythm management, neurological and spinal, vascular and cardiac surgery. Its web site is here Medtronic.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.