Monday, July 28, 2025

Savaria Corporation

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still reasonable. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) could still improve. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Savaria Corporation.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This has been a good stock for its shareholder so far. It has a niche market and this is generally good. It is always best to buy a stock you want to buy and hold over several years. It is testing as reasonable, but I would use caution as the stock is just off its latest high.

I do not own this stock of Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF). I got this stock off the Dividend Blogger site that no longer exists. I am always interested in dividend growth small cap stock. The first few years of accounting were rather confusing, but I think I figured them out in the end.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company has been doing well for its shareholder. See the 10 year results below and results for years 5 to 23 further down in this blog entry. As far as insider selling and buy is concerned, for the people I am following, the Chairman and a Director was selling, but the CEO and one officer was buying. Most of the people I am following had no change.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,000.50 you would have bought 230 shares at $4.35 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $914.07 in dividends. The stock would be worth $4,574.70. Your total return would have been $5,488.77. This would be a total return of 20.84% per year with 16.42% from capital gain and 4.43% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$4.35 $1,000.50 230 10 $914.07 $4,574.70 $5,488.77

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.69%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yield is also moderate at 3.23%, 2.98% and 3.41%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 4.1% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 3.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) could still improve. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 77% with 5 year coverage at 100%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is too high at 52% with 5 year coverage at 87%. This is a better ratio for DPR, but it would be best if these ratios were in the 40% range or lower. Analysts expect this to happen next year. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 27% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 43% with 5 year coverage at 50%. There is no agreement on what the FCF is.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 77.16% 99.57%
AEPS 58.30% 87.03%
CFPS 27.26% 31.66%
FCF 43.82% 50.21%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.16 and currently at 0.08. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.81 and 1.80 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.07 and 2.11 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.94 and 0.94 and currently at 1.90 and 0.90.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.16 0.16
Intang/GW 0.43 0.43
Liquidity 1.81 1.80
Liq. + CF 2.26 2.31
Debt Ratio 2.07 2.11
Leverage 1.94 1.90
D/E Ratio 0.94 0.90

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 4.07% 10.47% 7.35% 3.12%
2014 10 14.97% 20.84% 16.42% 4.43%
2009 15 21.02% 31.35% 23.39% 7.96%
2004 20 13.73% 16.20% 13.12% 3.08%
2001 23 10.76% 17.30% 14.41% 2.89%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.69, 28.29 and 34.60. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 21.59, 27.18 and 34.74. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.54, 19.67 and 26.14. The current P/E Ratio is 21.43 based on a stock price of $20.04 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $0.94. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.85, 22.87 and 28.82. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.15, 24.48 and 30.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.64, 21.05 and 26.36. The current P/E Ratio is 18.91 based on a stock price of $20.04 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $1.06. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $13.78. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.28, 1.63 and 1.98. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.45 based on a stock price of $20.04. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. The high ratios on the Graham Price is saying that the stock is being priced as a growth stock.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.61. The current ratio is 2.52 based on a Book Value of $592M, Book Value per Share of $7.96 and a stock price of $20.04. The current ratio is 3.5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.36. The current ratio is 11.39 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $1.76, Cash Flow of $130.9M and a stock price of $20.04. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.41%. The current dividend yield is 2.69% based on a stock price of $20.04 and dividends of $0.54. The current ratio is 20.9% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.98%. The current dividend yield is 2.69% based on a stock price of $20.04 and dividends of $0.54. The current ratio is 9.5% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.76. The current P/S Ratio is 1.62 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $919M, Revenue per Share of $12.35 and a stock price of $20.04. The current ratio is 7.7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still reasonable. Most of the testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap to reasonable except for the dividend yield tests. The historical test says it is expensive and the 10 year median test says that it is reasonable but above the median. If you look at the chart, the stock price is off the recent high.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), and Buy (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $24.29 with a high of $25.00 and low of $23.00. The consensus stock price of $24.29 implies a total return of 23.90% with 21.21% from capital gains and 2.69% from dividends based on a currently price of $20.04. Note that the stock price has hit highs of $20.61 in 2018, $22.42 in 2021 and recently $23.72 in 2024 before falling back again.

On Stock Chase some analysts like this company and some do not. They say it is ok, but not outstanding and that an investor should be careful. A worry is that they will be hit by Trump’s tariffs. Others think it is a good buy. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this stock is undervalued in its niche market. Rajiv Nanjapla on Motley Fool says he is bullish on due to its solid financials, growing addressable market, and growth initiatives. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2024. The company put out a Press Release about their first quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They have 2 warnings out on this stock of large one-off items impacting financial results; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months.

Savaria Corp designs, engineers, and manufactures products for personal mobility. Its products include home elevators, wheelchair lifts, commercial elevators, ceiling lifts, stairlifts, and van conversions. Its web site is here Savaria Corporation.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TECSYS Inc (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 30, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Social Media Scams.... learn more on Tuesday, July 28, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, July 25, 2025

TECSYS Inc

I have been looking at Well Health Technologies Corp (TSX-WELL, OTCQX-WHTCF). I noticed this stock when it was said it was about to acquire MyHealth Centres in Toronto. Today I bought 300 shares with my fooling around money. I investigated it and will produce a report on or around August 6. In the mean time here are two articles. An article dated October 17, 2024 talks about Hong Kong Billionaire Solian Chau buying a 14% stake in this company. There is an article on CANTECH about Stifel analyst Justin Keywood recommending this stock in June 2025.

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Tech. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could still be reasonable, but be cautious. Debt Ratios are mostly fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on TECSYS Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I have done well on this stock, but I bought it with fooling around money because it is a small Tech stock. I do not believe in Tech stocks for the long term. I would be cautious with this stock, but it is off its recent high. It is testing as reasonable, but above the median.

I own this stock of TECSYS Inc (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF). I came across this stock when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock as a filler stock. This is a small cap dividend paying stock that I like.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done very well on this stock. I have had it since February 11, 2023 and bought more in January 2024. My total return is 25.42% with 22.98% from capital gains and 2.44% from dividends. I noticed that the Chairman, David Brereton has been selling some shares every year. Note that the financial year for this stock ends April 30 each year, so I am reviewing the fourth quarter for April 30, 2025.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,000.00 you would have bought 125 shares at $8.00 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $285.63 in dividends. The stock would be worth $5,731.25. Your total return would have been $6,016.88. This would be a total return of 20.33% per year with 19.08% from capital gain and 1.26% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$8.00 $1,000.00 125 10 $285.63 $5,731.25 $6,016.88

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is low (below 1%) at just 0.92%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also low at 0.85%, 1.11% and 1.28%. The current dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 7.5% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 6.3%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 110% with 5 year coverage at 105%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is too high at 57% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 55% with 5 year coverage at 57%. There is no agreement on what the FCF is.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 110.00% 105.15%
CFPS 57.39% 57.39%
FCF 55.49% 57.27%

Debt Ratios are mostly fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.00 and currently at 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.32 and 1.32 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are low at 1.32 and currently at 1.32. I prefer the Liquidity Ratios to be at 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.03 and 2.03 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.97 and 0.97 and currently at 1.97 and 0.97.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.00 0.00
Intang/GW 0.04 0.04
Liquidity 1.32 1.32
Liq. + CF 1.32 1.32
Debt Ratio 2.03 2.03
Leverage 1.97 1.97
D/E Ratio 0.97 0.97

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 7.49% 17.48% 16.49% 0.99%
2014 10 13.87% 20.33% 19.08% 1.26%
2009 15 13.41% 24.81% 23.02% 1.79%
2004 20 13.22% 19.87% 18.65% 1.22%
1999 25 7.82% 7.43% 0.39%
1998 26 11.26% 10.78% 0.48%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 108.63, 133.17 and 157.70. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 57.97, 90.92 and 107.52. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.31, 19.63 and 23.96. The current ratio is 79.94 based on a stock price of $37.08 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $0.47. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. The ratios are very high because of low EPS compared to the stock price.

I get a Graham Price of $7.09. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 3.10, 4.61 and 5.31. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.23 based on a stock price of $37.08. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.25. The current P/B Ratio is 7.72 based on a stock price of $37.08, Book Value of $71.26M and Book Value per Share of $4.80. The current ratio is 47% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 48.84. The current ratio is 113.31 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $4.386M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.33 and a stock price of $37.08. The current ratio is 132% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.28%. The current dividend yield is 0.92% based on dividends of $0.34 and a stock price of $37.08. The current dividend yield is 28% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.11%. The current dividend yield is 0.92% based on dividends of $0.34 and a stock price of $37.08. The current dividend yield is 17% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.78. The current P/S Ratio is 2.85 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $193M, Revenue per Share of $13.03 and a stock price of $37.08. The current ratio is 2% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could still be reasonable, but be cautious. The 10 year dividend yield test says that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Other tests are either showing the same thing or that the stock price is expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Buy (4). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $48.20 with a high of $50.00 and low of $46.00. The consensus stock price of $48.20 implies a total return of 30.91% with 29.99% from capital gains and 0.92% from dividends based on a current price of $37.08.

There are two entries on Stock Chase for this stock for 2025. The last one lists this stock as a buy, the earlier one says Do Not Buy as this analyst does not like that the company has little in recurring revenue. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says invest in companies that use AI and this is one she likes. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this is Canadian Tech stock worth investing in. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter ending in March 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and its dividends. I agree that it is currently paying out too much. Simply Wall Street has two warnings out on this stock of earnings have declined by 14% per year over past 5 years and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. Earnings are volatile. For insider selling over the past years, the CEO and CFO and one director I follow bought shares in the last year. However, the Chairman, who when I first stated to follow this stock had 30% of the shares in 2005. Over the past 20 years he has been selling some each year and he now owns 6% of the shares of this company.

TECSYS Inc is engaged in the development and sale of enterprise supply chain management software for distribution, warehousing, transportation logistics, point-of-use, and order management. It also provides related consulting, education, and support services. The company serves healthcare systems, services parts, third-party logistics, retail, and general wholesale distribution industries. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States and also has a presence in Canada, Europe, and other regions. Its web site is here TECSYS Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pulse Seismic Inc (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF) ... learn more on Monday, July 28, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Pulse Seismic Inc

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but above the median. Debt Ratios are very good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth restarting. See my spreadsheet on Pulse Seismic Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The positives on this stock are that the Debt Ratios are good, as are the DPR ratios. Another positive is that the dividends are back and there are dividend increases. They did not do that well in 2024, but they did do quite well in the first quarter of this year. A negative is that the stock price is higher currently than it has been 2017. Caution is called for as this is a small company that analysts have given up following. Stock is also cyclical. I thought the testing is showing the stock price as reasonable, but above the median, but it could be on the expensive site.

I do not own this stock of Pulse Seismic Inc (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF). I wanted to invest some extra money in a dividend paying small cap. I used a Stock Filter. I asked for companies that were priced between $1 and $5.50 and had a yield between 4% and 20%. Pulse Seismic Inc. was one of the companies that were returned. This is not a stock I chose to invest in but I found it of interest so I am following it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company has done very well in the first quarter of 2025. For example, Revenue was up 60% comparing last 12 months and 2024 values. Same with Earnings which are up some 300% and cash flow up 43%. I note that the Chairman owns around 22% of the outstanding shares.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,002.06 you would have bought 342 shares at $2.93 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $230.85 in dividends. The stock would be worth $817.38. Your total return would have been $1,048.23. This would be a total return of 0.49% per year with 2.02% from capital loss and 2.51% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$2.93 $1,002.06 342 10 $230.85 $817.38 $1,048.23

If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,001.22 you would have bought 451 shares at $2.22 per share. In July 2025, after lightly less than10 years you would have received $398.01 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,578.52. Your total return would have been $1,985.53. This would be a total return of 6.79% per year with 4.72% from capital loss and 2.08% from dividends. This stock is up some 47% this year.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$2.22 $1,001.22 451 10 $398.01 $1,587.52 $1,985.53

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth restarting. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.05%. The 5 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate at 2.18% and 2.16%. The 10 year median dividend yield is low (below 1%) at just 0.35%. That is because there were no dividends for a number years within the 10 year period. Dividends were cut in 2016 and then restarted in 2021. There have been dividend increases since then and dividends are 12.5% below what they were in 2014. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 13.7%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 155% with 5 year coverage at 88%, however, the DPR for AEPS is more important. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 39% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 19% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 25% with 5 year coverage at 15%, but no agreement on what FCF is.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 155.36% 88.30%
AEPS 38.84% 26.60%
CFPS 19.27% 21.95%
FCF 25.33% 14.98%

Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.00 and currently at 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 5.08 and 3.72 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 20.41 and 24.15 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.18 and 0.18 and currently at 1.34 and 0.34.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.00 0.00
Intang/GW 0.08 0.04
Liquidity 5.08 3.72
Liq. + CF 8.97 6.96
Debt Ratio 20.41 24.15
Leverage 1.18 1.34
D/E Ratio 0.18 0.34

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 0.00% 7.94% 4.26% 3.68%
2014 10 -3.04% 0.49% -2.02% 2.51%
2009 15 0.00% 7.96% 4.47% 3.49%
2004 20 0.81% 5.63% 1.60% 4.03%
1999 25 0.77% 9.77% 4.75% 5.02%
1998 26 13.31% 6.87% 6.44%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 2.48, 4.43 and 6.38. The corresponding 10 year ratios are negative and so useless. The corresponding historical ratios are 2.48, 4.50 and 6.04. The current ratio is 12.18 based on a stock price of $3.41 and EPS for the last 12 months of $0.28. The current is above the high ratios of the 5 year and historical median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Problems with this testing is that the ratios are very low due to lots of earning losses over the past 10 years.

I also have Cash Flow from Operations (CFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Cash Flow from Operations Ratios are 6.64, 8.18 and 9.12. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.70, 8.52 and 10.09. The corresponding historical ratios are 4.92, 7.04 and 9.15. The current ratio is 8.97 based on a stock price of $3.41 and AESP for the last 12 months of $0.38. The current ratio is between the median and high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $1.86. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 1.28 and 1.64. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.83 based on a stock price of $3.41. The current ratio is above the high ratio for the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. I used the CFFO in the GP formula and the problem with the EPS is that there are too many years of earning losses to be sure of the calculations using EPS.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.57. The current P/B Ratio is 8.44 based on a Book Value of $20.53M, Book Value per Share of $0.40 and a stock price of $3.41. The current ratio is 137% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. (The reason why this is testing as expensive is because Book Value has fallen in the last 3 years.)

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.43. The current ratio is 8.51 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $20.3M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.40 and a stock price of $3.41. The current ratio is 1% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. (The reason for the good result here is that Cash Flow is up over the past 12 months ending in the first quarter of 2025 compared to Cash Flow over the 12 month period ending December 2024.)

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.16%. The current dividend yield is 2.05% based on dividends of $0.07 and a stock price of $3.41. The current dividend yield is 5% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.35%. The current dividend yield is 2.05% based on dividends of $0.07 and a stock price of $3.41. The current dividend yield is 481% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is not a good test as dividends were zero over most of the past 10 years.

I get a 4 year median dividend yield of 2.27%. The current dividend yield is 2.05% based on dividends of $0.07 and a stock price of $3.41. The current dividend yield is 9% below the 4year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This is a better test as dividends were paid over the past 4 year. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.54. The current ratio is 4.64 based on Revenue for the last 12 months of $37,361, Revenue per Share of $0.74 and a stock price of $3.41. The current ratio is 16% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. (I wonder how good this test is because revenue jumps around a lot for the stock. See chart below. For the year 2025, the values are for the last 12 months.

Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $11.349 $49.150 $9.570 $39.127 $23.379 $37,361
Change -53.02% 333.08% -80.53% 308.85% -40.25% 59.81%

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but above the median. I worry about some of the tests. A number of the tests that are solid, like Price/ Cash Flow from Operations Ratios, Price/Graham Price, Price/Book Value per Share Ratio and 4 year median dividend yield tests, say the stock price is either reasonable and above the median or expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $2.10. There is only one price consensus. The consensus stock price of $2.10 implies a total loss of 36.36% with a capital loss of $38.42 and dividends of $2.05% based on a current stock price of $3.41. (This consensus stock price is not out of bounds of reality. The stock price was below this price from 2018 to 2023. Also, I only found one site that had any analyst recommendations. Most sites that show analyst recommendations had no information.)

The last entry on Stock Chase for this stock was 2018. Analyst said there was not enough value in the stock to buy. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool in December 2024 said buying this penny stock may give in outsized gains in 2025. Karen Thomas on Motley Fool said in January 2023 that if it was cheaper she would buy. Unfortunately, the stock price has just gone up from that time. The company put out a press release viaGlobal Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2024. The company put out a press release via Global Newswire about their results for the first quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance looks at this stock and who owns its shares. Simply Wall Street has 1 warning out on this stock of unstable dividend track record. (They are right about that.)

Pulse Seismic Inc is a Canadian company which acts as a provider of seismic data to the energy sector in western Canada. The company is engaged in the acquisition, marketing, and licensing of 2D and 3D seismic data to the energy sector. It offers the full suite of project management services including On-site professional project management, experienced cost estimation services, daily reporting to clients and detailed project cost tracking, procurement of subcontractors to ensure regulatory compliance, and others. Its web site is here Pulse Seismic Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Dorel Industries Inc (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TECSYS Inc (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF) ... learn more on Friday, July 25, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Travel Insurance.... learn more on Thursday, July 24, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, July 21, 2025

Dorel Industries Inc

Sound bite for Twitter is: Consumer Sector Stock. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap, but cheap for a reason. Debt Ratios need improving. The company currently pays not dividends. See my spreadsheet on Dorel Industries Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? A company to succeed must not only have increasing revenue, it has to be able to make a profit. Analysts do not expect any profit for this company until 2027. However, analysts often change their minds about what might happen in two years’ time. Obviously, buying this company is a risk. They also have some awful debt ratios. On the other hand, the stock price is cheap.

I do not own this stock of Dorel Industries Inc (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF), but I used to. This was a stock recommended by Investment Reporter as a conservative investment. I sold the stock in 2006 because I had it for 7 years from 1999 and it was going nowhere. I bought this stock before I stopped working and at that time I did not mind buying stocks with no dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they lost money in 2024 because their costs are too high, but also because they took an impairment loss in 2024. Note that the 5 year return is high because the company sold some of its business and gave out a dividend payment to shareholders because of this sale. The stock price has really tanked. It reached a high of $41.97 in 2015 and the stock price has been declining since and recently at $1.45.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,000.50 you would have bought 25 shares at $40.02 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $581.32 in dividends. The stock would be worth $97.27. Your total return would have been $678.57. This would be a total loss of 5.32% per year with 20.79% from capital loss and 15.47% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$40.02 $1,000.50 25 10 $581.32 $97.25 $678.57

The company currently pays not dividends. So, there is no dividend yield for Dividend Payout Ratios to talk about..

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.35 and currently far too high at 1.54. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is too low at 0.88 and 0.88 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still too low at 1.06 and currently at 0.94. A good ratio is 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is too low at 1.06 and 1.03 currently. A good ratio is at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are far too high at 19.05 and 18.05 and currently at 32.88 and 31.88. Good ratios are below 3.00 and below 2.00.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.35 1.54
Intang/GW 0.71 1.73
Liquidity 0.88 0.88
Liq. + CF 0.98 0.94
Debt Ratio 1.06 1.03
Leverage 19.05 32.88
D/E Ratio 18.05 31.88

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2024 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 0.00% 45.68% -7.84% 53.51%
2014 10 0.00% -5.32% -20.79% 15.47%
2009 15 0.00% -0.19% -13.20% 13.01%
2004 20 0.00% -1.37% -11.14% 9.78%
1999 25 0.00% 1.28% -7.32% 8.60%
1994 30 0.00% 9.39% 0.01% 9.38%
1992 32 0.00% 7.11% -1.08% 8.19%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2024 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 0.00% 42.29% -10.52% 52.81%
2014 10 0.00% -7.47% -22.66% 15.19%
2009 15 0.00% -2.36% -15.18% 12.82%
2004 20 0.00% -1.91% -12.04% 10.13%
1999 25 0.00% 1.99% -7.30% 9.29%
1994 30 0.00% 9.96% -0.17% 10.13%
1992 32 0.00% 8.50% -0.58% 9.08%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.95, 10.86 and 12.81. The current P/E Ratio is negative, so I cannot do any testing here. Analysts expect the company to have earnings in 2027 and for then, the P/E is 3.42 based on EPS of $0.42 and stock price of $1.45. This ratio is very low and it is below the low ratio of the historical median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap (maybe).

I have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.90, 6.04 and 6.84. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.73, 9.23 and 11.03. The current P/AESP is negative so unusable. Analysts expect the company to give earnings in 2027 and for then, the P/AEPS is 4.61 based on AEPS of $0.31 and stock price of $1.45. This ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $2.67 (maybe as we only have positive earnings in 2027). The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.53, 0.69 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.54 based on a stock price of $1.45. This ratio is between the low and median ratio of 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. (This is an uncertain test because the company had so many years of earnings losses, so I am basically guessing at GP and its ratio.)

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.80. The current P/B Ratio is 1.44 based on Book Value of $24.1M, Book Value per Share of $0.74 and a stock price of $1.06. The current ratio is 80% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$, but you will get similar results in CDN$. (Book Value has currently tanked also.)

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.91. The current ratio is 1.06 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $1.00, Cash Flow of $32.6M and a stock price of $1.06. The current ratio is 73% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$, but you will get similar results in CDN$.

I cannot do any dividend yield tests as this stock no longer pays a dividend.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is $0.22. The current P/S Ratio is 0.03 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $1,377M, Revenue per Share of $42.20 and a stock price of $1.06. The current ratio is 89% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$, but you will get similar results in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap, but cheap for a reason. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is cheap and this is a good test. There are problems with the P/E Ratio, P/AEPS Ratio, and P/GP Ratio testing. The P/B Ratio test says that the stock is expensive and the P/CF Ratio test says the stock price is cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (1), and Sell (1). The consensus would be an Underperform. The 12 month stock price consensus is $1.74 ($1.27 US$) with a high of $2.26 ($1.65 US$) and low of $1.22 ($0.89 US$). The consensus stock price of $1.74 implies a total return of 20% and all from capital gains based on a current stock price of $1.45.

The last entry was in 2023 on Stock Chase and the analyst said Do Not Buy. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool wrote about this stock in 2023 and thought it was undervalued then. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2024 results. The company put out a Press Release about their first quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and says it is fairly valued. They say that revenue is expected to grow in the near future. Simply Wall Street has two warnings out on this stock of earnings have declined by 17.4% per year over past 5 years; and does not have a meaningful market cap (CA$51M).

Dorel Industries Inc is a Canadian company that sells juvenile products and furniture. Geographically, it derives key revenue from the United States, followed by Europe, Latin America, Canada, Asia, and other regions. Its web site is here Dorel Industries Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Pulse Seismic Inc (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 23, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about TFSA Features.... learn more on Tuesday, July 22, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, July 18, 2025

Artis REIT

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Paying REIT. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are mostly fine but the Liquidity Ratio can sometimes be a problem. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are mostly fine. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth currently flat after a decrease. See my spreadsheet on Artis REIT.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The problem I see is that Revenue, AFFO, and FFO are expected to decline in 2025 and even for 2026 not be at the 2024 level. Earnings are expected to be negative. You have to wonder about dividends as DPRs are currently high and expected to go higher. The only positive is that there is some insider buying. So, buying this REIT is probably on the risky side. The current stock price is testing as relatively reasonable.

I do not own this stock of Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF). Early in 2013, this company was mentioned as a good REIT to own. Several people I correspond with mentioned this REIT. However, my first view of it is not positive. It is also not a dividend growth stock in 2013.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company is not doing well. Revenue is going down as is Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). Analysts expect this to continue over the next two years.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,006.78 you would have bought 71 shares at $14.18 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $580.71 in dividends. The stock would be worth $522.56. Your total return would have been $1,103.27. This would be a total return of 1.27% per year with 6.35% from capital loss and 7.62% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$14.18 $1,006.78 71 10 $580.71 $522.56 $1,103.27

The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth currently flat after a decrease. The current dividend yield is high (7% and higher) at 7.74%. The 5 year dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges at 5.62%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are good at 7.17% and 7.38%. The dividends were cut in 2018. There was an increase in 2021 and dividends since then have been flat.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are mostly fine. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is non-calculable because of earnings losses. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is fine at 92% with 5 year coverage at 71%. The DPR for 2024 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 57% with 5 year coverage at 48%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is far too high at 71% with 5 year coverage at 61%. I prefer this DPR be at 40% or lower. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 108% with 5 year coverage at 74%. No one agrees on what the FCF and there are wide differences.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS -105.26% -347.86%
AFFO 92.31% 71.26%
FFO 57.14% 47.85%
CFPS 71.23% 60.73%
FCF 108.00% 73.56%

Debt Ratios are mostly fine but the Liquidity Ratio can sometimes be a problem. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is high at 0.85 and currently at 0.80. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2024 which is good at 0.28 and currently at 0.26 because this is a more important ratio for a REIT. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.09 and far too low at 0.44 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still low at 1.12 and currently far too low at 0.47. If you add back the current portion of the long term debt the ratio is fine at 7.39 and currently at 2.76. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.29 and 2.35 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.77 and 0.77 and currently at 1.74 and 0.74.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.85 0.80
Lg Term R +A 0.28 0.26
Intang/GW 0.00 0.00
Liquidity 1.09 0.44
Liq. + CF 1.12 0.47
Liq,CF,DB 7.39 2.76
Debt Ratio 2.29 2.35
Leverage 1.77 1.74
D/E Ratio 0.77 0.74

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 2.13% -2.26% -9.16% 6.90%
2014 10 -5.71% 1.27% -6.35% 7.62%
2009 15 -3.84% 6.97% -2.86% 9.84%
2004 20 -1.14% 16.23% 0.90% 15.33%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and so useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.07, 6.56 and 7.07. The corresponding historical ratios are 3.18, 3.59 and 4.01. The current P/E Ratio is negative and so unusable as EPS is expected to be a $0.13 loss.

I have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 9.40, 11.67 and 13.40. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.26, 11.19 and 13.09. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.49, 11.78 and 13.34. The current P/AFFO is 15.82 based on AFFO estimate for 2025 of $0.49 and a stock price of $7.75. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Funds from Operations Ratios are 5.59, 7.31 and 9.03. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.68, 8.16 and 9.41. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.82, 9.06 and 10.44. The current P/FFO is 9.34 based on FFO estimate for 2025 of $0.83 and a stock price of $7.75. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $11.88. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.48, 0.58 and 0.70. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.65 based on a stock price of $7.75. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. I am using AFFO figures in the calculation as EPS has too many loss earning years.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.64. The current ratio is 0.60 based on a stock price of $7.75, Book Value of $1,267 and Book Value per Share of $12.81. This ratio is 6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.43. The current ratio is 9.95 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $77.00, Cash Flow per Share of $0.78 and a stock price of $7.75. The current ratio is 10% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.38%. The current dividend yield is 7.74% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $7.75. The current dividend yield is 5% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 7.75%. The current dividend yield is 7.74% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $7.75. The current dividend yield is 0.40% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.33. The current P/S Ratio is 3.18 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $241M, Revenue per Share of $2.43 and a stock price of $7.75. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield testing is saying that the stock price is relatively reasonable. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The rest of the testing is suggesting the stock price is reasonable, but above the median or expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Holds (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $7.25 with a high $7.50 and low of $7.00. The stock price consensus of $7.25 imply a total return of 1.29% with a capital loss of 6.45% and dividends of 7.74% based on a current stock price of $7.75.

There is one entry on Stock Chase and analyst says the company is in transition and so difficult to analyst. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says the stock may not be flashy, but it is currently delivering reliable monthly cash. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool says buy this stock for is passive income. The company put out a press release via Newswire about its fourth quarter results for 2024. The company put out a Press Release via Newswire about their first quarter of 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. A lot of the review is negative, but they point out insider buying. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings out on this stock of earnings have declined by 41.4% per year over past 5 years; interest payments are not well covered by earnings; and dividend of 7.8% is not well covered by earnings.

Artis Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated closed-end real estate investment trust created under, and governed by, the laws of the Province of Manitoba. The REIT owns, manages, leases, and develops industrial, office, retail and residential properties in Canada and the United States, and holds other real estate investments. Its web site is here Artis REIT

The last stock I wrote about was about was Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Dorel Industries Inc (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF) ... learn more on Monday, July 21, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Obsidian Energy Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter is: Resource Sector Stock. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. Debt Ratios are fine. The stock no longer pays a dividend so there is not current dividend or Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR). See my spreadsheet on Obsidian Energy Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is an energy stock, so it is cyclical and risky. Analysts do no expect it to do well in 2025, but they expect 2026 to be a better year. There is insider buying and this is a positive. My stock price testing is showing the stock as currently being at a reasonable price.

I do not own this stock of Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE), but I used to. I bought this stock as Maximum Energy Trust (MXT.UN) in 1998. In November 2001, there was a stock exchange and the stock became Ultimate Energy Fund. In June 2004 fund changed from Ultimate Energy Income Trust to Petrofund Energy. Petrofund Energy merged with Penn West in July 2006. The company changed its name from Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (TSX-PWT, NYSE-PWE) to Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) in 2017.

I sold my shares in 2010. Penn West is changing to a corporation, but they are also getting back into exploration, rather than just selling oil from their wells. It is time to sell. They also just reduced their dividends from $.15 per share per month to $.09 per share per month.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that there is an earnings loss because the company took an impairment hit. There is a lot of insiders buying over the past year with concentration from March 2025. Over the past year all of the officers I follow bought more shares as did directors, especially the Chairman. The stock is cyclical. See returns for 5 and 10 years below.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,003.59 you would have bought 59 shares at $17.01 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $70.21 in dividends. The stock would be worth $493.24. Your total return would have been $563.45. This would be a total loss of 6.13% per year with 6.86% from capital loss and 0.72% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$17.01 $1,003.59 59 10 $70.21 $493.24 $563.45

If you had invested in this company in December 2019, for $1,000.68 you would have bought 1076 shares at $0.93 per share. In December 2024, after 5 years you would have received $0.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $8,995.36. Your total return would have been $8,99.36. This would be a total gain of 55.15% per year with 55.15% from capital gain and 0.0% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$0.93 $1,000.68 1,076 5 $0.00 $8,995.36 $8,995.36

The stock no longer pays a dividend so there is no current dividend or Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR).

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is fine at 0.54 and currently at 0.65, but these ratios are better when they are below 0.50. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.79 and 1.56 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.98 and 2.85 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.50 and 0.50 and currently at 1.54 and 0.54.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.54 0.65
Intang/GW 0.00 0.00
Liquidity 1.79 1.56
Liq. + CF 3.10 2.48
Debt Ratio 2.98 2.85
Leverage 1.50 1.54
D/E Ratio 0.50 0.54

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 0.00% 55.15% 55.15% 0.00%
2014 10 0.00% -6.13% -6.86% 0.72%
2009 15 0.00% -13.51% -16.71% 3.20%
2004 20 0.00% -1.64% -14.28% 13.81%
1999 25 0.00% 20.54% -10.59% 39.76%
1995 29 0.00% 8.84% -10.62% 19.20%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 0.17, 0.58 and 1.00. The corresponding 10 year ratios are negative so unusable. The corresponding historical ratios are 3.66, 5.80 and 7.06. The ratios are very low because of years of earnings losses. The current ratio is 4.88 based on a stock price of $7.42 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $1.52. This ratio is very low. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.

I have Cash Flow from Operations (CFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Cash Flow from Operations Ratios are 1.10, 1.93 and 2.70. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 1.32, 2.21 and 2.82. The corresponding historical ratios are 1.96, 4.13 and 6.10. The current ratio is 1.03 based on a stock price of $7.42 and CFFO estimate for 2025 of $7.20. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.

I have Funds Flow from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds Flow from Operations Ratios are 1.08, 1.78 and 2.26. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 1.45, 2.02 and 2.70. The corresponding historical ratios are 1.45, 2.81 and 4.22. The current ratio is 1.30 based on a stock price of $7.42 and FFO for last 12 months of $5.72. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $49.93. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.12, 0.21 and 0.28. The current ratio is 0.15 based on a stock price of $7.42. This ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. I am using the FFO values in this calculation because the P/GP ratio using EPS is compromised by the number of recent earning losses. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.35. The current P/B Ratio is 0.38 based on a Book Value of $1,412M, Book Value per Share of $19.37 and a stock price of $7.42. The current ratio is 9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 1.92. The current ratio is 1.88 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $3.94, Cash Flow per Share of $287.1M and a stock price of $7.42. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I cannot do any dividend yield testing because this company no longer pays a dividend.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.79. The current P/S Ratio is 0.76 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $714M, Revenue per Share of $9.80 and a stock price of $7.42. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $9.25 with a high of $10.00 and low of $8.00. The consensus stock price of $9.25 implies a total return of 24.66%, all from capital gains based on a current stock price of $7.42.

The last entry on Stock Chase is for 2022 and it is a Do Not Buy. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says this company is currently producing solid financial results. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool said this stock was currently cheap at $9.26. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter results for 2024. The company put out a Press Release on their first quarter results for 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talk about the global market undervaluing small cap with recent Insider Activity including this stock. Simply Wall Street gives no risk warnings on this stock. I did find insider buying on this stock.

Obsidian Energy Ltd is an intermediate-sized oil and gas producer with strategic assets in Alberta. It operates in a single reporting segment that is exploration, development, and holding an interest in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. The company generates the majority of the revenue from the Crude oil sale. Its web site is here Obsidian Energy Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF) ... learn more on Friday, July 18, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Open Banking.... learn more on Thursday, July 17, 2025 around 5 pm.

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